Megargel, TX Special Weather Statement

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Issued:

1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008

Expires:

700 AM CDT SAT JUL 05 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. DISCUSSION... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL... SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT STILL MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON... WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. A BRIEF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE... WITH THE THREAT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS... BUT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED... AND THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY CAUSE A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUL 5. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM SATURDAY.