Crowell, TX Special Weather Statement

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Issued:

1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

Expires:

700 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... WARM TEMPERATURES AT MID-LEVELS WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DIFFICULT SO STORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP... WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO ORGANIZE... WHICH WILL LIKEWISE REDUCE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF OKLAHOMA... MUCH OF THIS STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... SOME OF THE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... AND HEAVY RAIN. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY SEP 8. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...20 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT... WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY... BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... WITH READINGS POSSIBLY FALLING FROM THE 80S INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S WITHIN A FEW HOURS. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM MONDAY.