Kinard, FL Special Weather Statement

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Issued:

311 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

Expires:

215 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SATURDAY. AS IT MOVES INLAND...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STRONG AND EXACTLY WHAT TRACK THIS LOW WILL TAKE...AND THIS UNCERTAINTY AFFECTS THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS. IF THE LOW IS RATHER WEAK AND TAKES A MORE EASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR OUR REGION WOULD BE MINIMAL. IF THE LOW IS STRONGER AND TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...THEN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WOULD BE HIGHER. FOR NOW WE ARE FORECASTING AN INTENSITY AND TRACK SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS...WHICH MEANS ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY POINT...WHICH IS LOW BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.